Make Your Own Luck in Venture Capital
How to Tilt the Odds in Your Favor in Venture Capital
Being lucky is better than being good. Or so the saying goes. In investing, especially venture capital, luck often seems to disproportionately favor certain firms and individuals. But is success in VC really just roulette? Or are there ways to tilt the odds in your favor?
In 1978, neurologist James Austin introduced a compelling framework in his book Chase, Chance, and Creativity. He described four types of luck: blind luck, activity luck, preparation luck, and uniqueness luck. When applied to corporate venture capital (CVC), this framework offers not just perspective but power.
Too often, CVC leaders attribute wins or losses to external forces. But what if we reframed luck not as something that happens to us, but as something we can manufacture? Here’s how each form of luck can apply to our work and how to create more of it.
Luck is a great thing; if you don’t have it, go get some
Blind Luck
This is the random, uncontrollable kind; you’re in the right place, right time, pure serendipity. It happens. But it’s not strategy.
Unfortunately, we can’t do anything about this type of luck. It will still, always, be part of the randomness of life.
Nothing to see here; moving on.
Action Luck
This type of luck is created by initiating action, by being curious and exploring. Venture capitalists can create this luck through persistence, hard work, and hustle.
For the corporate venture capitalist, you can begin to create this luck through the following actions:
Meet frequently with internal sponsors, advocates, and skeptics. Proactively reach out and build relationships. The more conversations you initiate, the more potential opportunities emerge.
Facilitate regular interactions between your portfolio companies and key internal stakeholders. This fosters cross-pollination of ideas and unlocks latent strategic opportunities.
Write internal newsletters or post on enterprise platforms. Share short, engaging updates about portfolio milestones, pilot progress, or market signals.
Show up. Attend industry conferences, startup expos, and CVC summits. Get up and meet people. Many of the best introductions happen at the coffee cart, not in scheduled meetings.
This is about both quality and quantity: this luck is created by kicking up dust. Lots of good things will get stirred up and the probability of something good happening will go up.
Connecting internal stakeholders with various startups can result in novel ideas being generated, perhaps about how an internal group can use the startup’s emerging technology in an original way. Or perhaps by connecting your portfolio companies, you’ll spark a collaboration that will yield results for not only the portfolio companies but your organization (or your clients).
Writing about your portfolio can be an effective way to spread the word about the venture program. You don’t need to write long narratives; short bursts of valuable information can lead to folks you don’t even know learning about the venture program, extending your network of influence, and potentially sparking a connection. Does your organization have an internal-only social network, a place to share ideas and connect with others across the organization? You could also consider writing more frequently on your venture program’s website or landing page. Or even starting a LinkedIn newsletter or Substack webpage (first check with risk and legal, of course). The main point is to create activity and momentum through writing.
With each interaction (meeting internal sponsors, collaborating with founders, writing newsletters, or attending industry conferences), you are creating more “surface area” for positive spontaneous events to occur. (This concept of tilting odds in your favor, is in my opinion, one of the great underlying superpowers of CVC in general—I’ll cover this in a separate article.)
For now, consider creating your own good luck through more activity.
Considerations for Action Luck
What are low cost / low effort ways to create action around the venture program? If you’ve done some of these things in the past, how can you build in persistence and endurance?
Preparation Luck
This type of luck is earned through experience, diligence, and deep awareness. It’s when you’ve seen enough patterns that you’re able to detect subtle but meaningful signals others miss.
For CVC professionals, preparation luck comes from:
Studying your parent company inside and out. Know how decisions get made. Understand regulatory constraints and strategic priorities.
Spending time in technical and commercial diligence. The more depth you have, the more precise your judgments become.
Immersing yourself in your focus area. Whether it’s AI, cybersecurity, fintech, or healthcare—read everything. Track emerging founders. Know the startup ecosystem.
With time, your intuition will sharpen. You may not be able to articulate exactly why one startup seems stronger than another, but years of preparation train you to spot real potential.
When others see a coin flip, your gut—rooted in deep domain expertise—is already leaning one way. That’s not magic. It’s earned luck.
Considerations for Preparation Luck
Whereas you can begin to manufacture activity luck today, awareness luck requires time and hard work. Once you’ve done your homework though, how can you become more attuned to your gut feel?
Uniqueness Luck
This type of luck stems from what makes you uniquely you. It’s about your personal attributes, your reputation, and the traits that set you apart.
Everyone brings something unique to the table. For example:
Are you deeply technical and able to evaluate early-stage products others don’t understand?
Are you an incredible connector who builds trust quickly?
Are you known for persistence, detail orientation, or your ability to find common ground between startup vision and enterprise needs?
Knowing and leaning into your uniqueness can unlock new opportunities.
In my own journey building KPMG Ventures, I’ve come to appreciate how this principle plays out in practice. While I was fortunate to have strong support and mentors, I also know that one of my defining traits—persistence—played a meaningful role. KPMG is a large, conservative professional services firm. Launching a venture program within it required an unusual level of grit. My ability to stay focused, push through internal resistance, and maintain belief in the vision despite slow-moving processes helped bring KPMG Ventures to life. I don’t always view stubbornness as a strength—but in this case, it was exactly what was needed.
CVC is filled with ambiguity, risk, and slow-moving bureaucracies. Traits like persistence, optimism, or unconventional thinking can be your edge—if you know how to use them.
Equally important is recognizing your limitations. Being honest about your gaps is a strength, not a weakness. No one is good at everything, and self-awareness allows you to be intentional about how you build your team. Surround yourself with individuals who complement your skills—whether it’s analytical depth, enterprise navigation, technical fluency, or founder empathy. Sometimes your most impactful move isn’t doubling down on your strengths—it’s finding someone who shores up your blind spots. The combination of your uniqueness with someone else’s strengths can unlock new kinds of luck that neither of you could create on your own.
Final Thoughts
By rethinking luck not as fate but as something that can be influenced, we put more of the game back in our control. Austin’s framework gives us a way to intentionally shape outcomes:
Be active to create motion luck.
Study deeply to build preparation luck.
Know yourself to unlock uniqueness luck.
In corporate venturing, there are already many variables outside of your control. But there are also powerful levers you can pull to tilt the odds in your favor.
Luck may still be required—but with the right actions, it doesn’t have to be left entirely to chance.